Tag: Probabilities

Free Download Philosophical Essay on Probabilities By Andrew I. Dale, Pierre-Simon Laplace (auth.)
1995 | 270 Pages | ISBN: 1461286891 | PDF | 20 MB
Pierre-Simon Laplace (1749-1827) is remembered amoung probabilitists today particularly for his "Theorie analytique des probabilites", published in 1812. The "Essai philosophique dur les probabilites" is his introduction for the second edition of this work. Here Laplace provided a popular exposition on his "Theorie". The "Essai", based on a lecture on probability given by Laplace in 1794, underwent sweeping changes, almost doubling in size, in the various editions published during Laplace’s lifetime. Translations of various editions in different languages have apeared over the years. The only English translation of 1902 reads awkwardly today. This is a thorough and modern translation based on the recent re-issue, with its voluminous notes, of the fifth edition of 1826, with preface by Rene Thom and postscript by Bernard Bru. In the second part of the book, the reader is provided with an extensive commentary by the translator including valuable histographical and mathematical remarks and various proofs.

Free Download Philosophical Devices: Proofs, Probabilities, Possibilities, and Sets by David Papineau
English | November 25, 2012 | ISBN: 0199651728, 0199651736 | True EPUB | 224 pages | 2.8 MB
This book is designed to explain the technical ideas that are taken for granted in much contemporary philosophical writing. Notions like "denumerability," "modal scope distinction," "Bayesian conditionalization," and "logical completeness" are usually only elucidated deep within difficult specialist texts. By offering simple explanations that by-pass much irrelevant and boring detail, Philosophical Devices is able to cover a wealth of material that is normally only available to specialists.

Free Download Design Methods for Reducing Failure Probabilities with Examples from Electrical Engineering
English | 2023 | ISBN: 303137018X | 153 Pages | PDF EPUB (True) | 17 MB
This book deals with efficient estimation and optimization methods to improve the design of electrotechnical devices under uncertainty. Uncertainties caused by manufacturing imperfections, natural material variations, or unpredictable environmental influences, may lead, in turn, to deviations in operation. This book describes two novel methods for yield (or failure probability) estimation. Both are hybrid methods that combine the accuracy of Monte Carlo with the efficiency of surrogate models. The SC-Hybrid approach uses stochastic collocation and adjoint error indicators. The non-intrusive GPR-Hybrid approach consists of a Gaussian process regression that allows surrogate model updates on the fly. Furthermore, the book proposes an adaptive Newton-Monte-Carlo (Newton-MC) method for efficient yield optimization. In turn, to solve optimization problems with mixed gradient information, two novel Hermite-type optimization methods are described. All the proposed methods have been numerically evaluated on two benchmark problems, such as a rectangular waveguide and a permanent magnet synchronous machine. Results showed that the new methods can significantly reduce the computational effort of yield estimation, and of single- and multi-objective yield optimization under uncertainty. All in all, this book presents novel strategies for quantification of uncertainty and optimization under uncertainty, with practical details to improve the design of electrotechnical devices, yet the methods can be used for any design process affected by uncertainties.