Tag: Uncertainty

Free Download Reversibility – Politics under Conditions of Uncertainty by Harmut Behr
English | June 15, 2024 | ISBN: 0228020840 | 246 pages | MOBI | 1.25 Mb
Western modernity is characterized by instrumental relations between humans and nature, as well as between humans themselves, that have caused irreversible environmental and social exploitation and degradation. Many policy documents, such as those by the United Nations Environment Programme, warn of the uncertainty and unpredictability of our precarious conditions due to our social and ecological interrelations and interdependencies. Accepting that our position in the world does not allow us secure knowledge of the consequences of politics, Reversibility – Politics under Conditions of Uncertainty asks how we can act politically in a responsible way when we cannot predict the outcomes of our decisions. Hartmut Behr diagnoses Western modernity and its manifold crises as dominated by the view that fellow humans and natural environments are merely means to our individual ends. Behr introduces a novel ethics of self-restraint and the principle of reversibility – a commitment to political actions whose effects shall not be indefinite or immutable – to build a policy framework that demands both ethical and practical reflection on the conditions of action and that accounts for the limitations under which we act and live. Identifying an urgent need for re-thinking political progress and for policy reform, Reversibility – Politics under Conditions of Uncertainty presents a new understanding of the self and of political responsibility centred in a genuine acknowledgment of the human condition.

Free Download Linear Models in the Mathematics of Uncertainty By John N. Mordeson, Mark J. Wierman, Terry D. Clark, Alex Pham, Michael A. Redmond (auth.)
2013 | 265 Pages | ISBN: 3642352235 | PDF | 3 MB
The purpose of this book is to present new mathematical techniques for modeling global issues. These mathematical techniques are used to determine linear equations between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables in cases where standard techniques such as linear regression are not suitable. In this book, we examine cases where the number of data points issmall (effects of nuclear warfare), where the experiment is not repeatable (the breakup of the former Soviet Union), and where the data is derived from expert opinion (how conservative is a political party). In all these cases the data is difficult to measure and an assumption of randomness and/or statistical validity is questionable. We apply our methods to real world issues in international relations such as nuclear deterrence, smart power, and cooperative threat reduction. We next apply our methods to issues in comparative politics such as successful democratization, quality of life, economic freedom, political stability, and failed states. Finally, issues involving deaf and hard of hearing children are explored.

Free Download Risk and Uncertainty for Civil Engineering
English | 2025 | ISBN: 1032679409 | 206 Pages | PDF EPUB (True) | 23 MB
This textbook introduces the fundamental concepts of probability, risk, and uncertainty, and shows their relevance in civil engineering projects. With an emphasis on applied probability and statistics, the book aids students in developing an intuitive understanding of the methods to apply in practice.

Free Download Managing the Continuum: Certainty, Uncertainty, Unpredictability in Large Engineering Projects By Franco Caron (auth.)
2013 | 88 Pages | ISBN: 8847052432 | PDF | 2 MB
The brief will describe how to develop a risk analysis applied to a project , through a sequence of steps: risk management planning, risk identification, risk classification, risk assessment, risk quantification, risk response planning, risk monitoring and control, process close out and lessons learning. The project risk analysis and management process will be applied to large engineering projects, in particular related to the oil and gas industry. The brief will address the overall range of possible events affecting the project moving from certainty (project issues) through uncertainty (project risks) to unpredictability (unforeseeable events), considering both negative and positive events. Some quantitative techniques (simulation, event tree, Bayesian inference, etc.) will be used to develop risk quantification. The brief addresses a typical subject in the area of project management, with reference to large engineering projects concerning the realization of large plants and infrastructures. These projects are characterized by a high level of change, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. The brief represents an extension of the material developed for the course Project Risk Analysis and Management of the Master in Strategic Project Management (Erasmus Mundus) developed jointly by Politecnico di Milano, Heriot Watt University (Edimburgh) and Umea (Sweden). The brief may be used both in courses addressing project management subjects and by practitioners as a guide for developing an effective project risk management plan.

Free Download Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning and Uncertainty: European Conference, ECSQARU ’95 Fribourg, Switzerland, July 3-5, 1995 Proceedings By Natasha Alechina (auth.), Christine Froidevaux, Jürg Kohlas (eds.)
1995 | 438 Pages | ISBN: 3540601120 | PDF | 8 MB
This volume constitutes the 48 full refereed research papers accepted for presentation at the Third European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning and Uncertainty, ECSQARU ’95, held in Fribourg, Switzerland in July 1995 under the sponsorship of the DRUMS consortium (ESPRIT II BRA 6156).In recent years, it has become apparent that an important part of the theory of AI is concerned with reasoning on the basis of uncertain, vague, incomplete, or inconsistent information. A variety of nonclassical formalisms, both symbolic and numerical, have been developed and are addressed in this volume; among them are nonmonotonic and modal logics, fuzzy sets, possibility theory, believe functions, evidence theory, dynamic models, and Bayesian networks.

Free Download The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck, UK Edition by David Spiegelhalter
English | September 19th, 2024 | ISBN: 0241658624 | 512 pages | True EPUB (Retail Copy) | 12.80 MB
‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ Telegraph

Free Download Data Analysis for the Geosciences
by Michael W. Liemohn
English | 2023 | ISBN: 1119747872 | 451 pages | True PDF | 20.63 MB

Free Download Knowledge Potential Measurement and Uncertainty By Kerstin Fink (auth.)
2004 | 274 Pages | ISBN: 3824421836 | PDF | 6 MB
Whereas the measurement of tangible assets, e.g. cost of sales or raw material, used to be one of the main issues of business in the past, the focus has now shifted towards intangible assets such as the knowledge potential of a firm’s knowledge workers. Against this background, the measurement of knowledge has become a challenge for the managers of knowledge based companies and they are looking for a knowledge measurement model to achieve the optimal organization well-being. Kerstin Fink discusses the two mainstream measurement fields: the cognitive science approach and the management approach. She develops the knowledge potential view which is determined by nine key measurement variables, i.e. content, culture, networking, organizational knowledge, learning and training, customer and competitor knowledge, and knowledge management systems. The author applies the analogical reasoning process and uses Werner Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle as a framework for the employee knowledge potential measurement process. Her aim is to assign a specific knowledge classification or value to each employee. Case studies demonstrate the model’s practical use.

Free Download Burt Perrin, Tony Tyrrell, Kathryn E. Newcomer, "Changing Bureaucracies: Adapting to Uncertainty, and How Evaluation Can Help"
English | 2020 | ISBN: 0367608081, 0367608049 | EPUB | pages: 248 | 0.6 mb
In Changing Bureaucracies, international experts provide an unparalleled look at how public sector bureaucracies can better adapt to the reality of unprecedented levels of uncertainty and complexity, and how they can better respond to the emerging needs and demands of citizens and beneficiaries. In particular, they discuss in detail how evaluation can play an important role in aiding bureaucracies in adapting, while noting that the value of evaluation is not at all automatic.

Free Download Principles of Uncertainty, 2nd Edition (Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science) by Joseph B. Kadane
English | August 21, 2020 | ISBN: 1138052736, 036753973X | True EPUB | 524 pages | 2.8 MB
Like the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples. It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems.